Variance: why results swing

9/6 Jacks or Better returns 99.54%. Triple Double Bonus returns 99.58%. Nearly the same long-run price — yet the two games feel nothing alike, because the return is delivered differently. Jacks or Better pays it back in a steady stream of two pair and full houses; Triple Double Bonus hoards it in rare kicker quads worth half a royal.

That delivery shape is volatility. Perfect play fixes the average; it does nothing to the width. On a high-volatility game, flawless strategy still produces long losing stretches — that's the design of the pay table, not a flaw in your play.

A royal flush shows up roughly once every 40,000 hands under optimal strategy, and it carries about 2% of the entire return of 9/6 Jacks or Better. Until your royal arrives, you're effectively playing a 97.5% game — for what can be weeks of sessions.

Long dry spells are the normal state of video poker, not a sign that anything is wrong. In Triple Double Bonus the effect is super-sized: almost 5% of the return sits in four aces with a kicker, a hand you might see a few times a year.

The practical consequence: higher volatility needs a deeper cushion so that a normal downswing doesn't end the session. For practice play at 5 credits a hand, use these as calm starting points — heuristics, not guarantees: